Easy, But, Probably: NFL Playoff Football - Playoff Predictions and Possibilties for Colts at Patriots

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With the Divisional round here, we have two Saturday matchups that, on paper, look fairly easy to predict. One features a hot and cold Colts team thats harder to predict than Mily Cyrus and a Patriots team that seems to defy adversity as if it knew it was coming in advance.

Most pundits, writers, bloggers and fans state the obvious and easy:

Oh, it's Brady, at home, in the playoffs. Duh!

                 Or

The Patriots are PLAYOFF TESTED.

                                 While others throw around


Team of DESTINY                 Its OUR time 

and ANYthing can happen

I am one going with the latter. Anything COULD happen. Brady and Luck are human. Belicheck has lost a game or two. Cam can't run ALL day. And Harbaugh's Boys will need to do more than High Five their way to victory.

Lets look at the ACTUAL possibilities shall we?

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS @ THE NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS 


EASY:

Tom Brady and Belicheck. The two constants for New England since the beginning of the teams run through NFL history. 17-7, 11-3 at home, 9-2 in cold weather games (Below freezing). That success is as cold blooded as the temp in Foxborough this weekend.
Andrew Luck was 14-30 with 2 sacks and 3 interceptions in the first half against the Chiefs last week but adjustments fixed that to the tune of 15-15 with no sacks and 3 TDs. But he's going up against the king of adjustments, Bill Belichick. He takes away your best weapon and makes you do without. No toys for Luck. Belichick 1 - The Kid 0. Oh and the last time these teams played? 59-24 with 4 luck turnovers turning into three TDs. two via pick six. Beliche ck 2 - The Kid 0. Oh and the Colts gave up 44 to Alex Smith last week WITHOUT Jamal Charles.

Easy Prediction: Patriots 42 Colts 14

BUT:

The Colts could be seen as one of destiny. They have the new Golden Boy in Andrew Luck. Their coach is on the sidelines this go round and not recovering from cancer. They defied all odds (teams leading by 30 at half in playoff history WERE 21-0 till last week) last week. Donald Brown is averaging over 5 yards a carry since becoming the lead back in Indy and the Pats best defenders, DT Vince Wilfork and Jerod Mayo, who play up the middle, where teams like to run the ball, our on IR. The Patriots were 24th in the league against the big passing play, giving up 36,
and face TY Hilton who was Mr. Big play last week.
Add in more injury to insult, the best performer on offense for Brady last year, Rob Gronkowski with 7 receptions, 137 yards and 2 TD's, is also on the IR.
Even more BUTs:
Andrew Luck soared mightily in postseason play after his freshman year in college: 41-49, 637 yards and 6 TDs in two BCS Bowls for an average of a 95QBR. Not a great chance he wilts in the spotlight.

BUT the right Prediction could be: Colts 35 Patriots 31

PROBABLY:

Probably what is going to happen is anything BUT Easy for the Patriots. Its easy to say that the Colts are outmatched and that the Patriots should start getting their ski gear ready for the Rocky Mountains. Easy to blindly root for your team for reason so vague that it blinds you to stark realities. But the truh of the matter is Brady and Belichick are tough to beat at home, but much easier to compete with and or beat when there is no Rob, Wes, Vince or Gerard. I am tempted to go the Easy route (who isn't?) but with a fair fight at QB and in the backfields, but with the skill positions much more in favor of the Colts as well as health, I'd probably put my money on the LUCKy Colts.

Probably (But not definitely) the Prediction will be: Colts 28 Patriots 27

Houston Texans vs Cincinnati Bengals Prediction

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The 3rd seeded Houston Texans will host the Cincinnati Bengals in a matchup of rookie QB's, one by design and one due to injury. The Houston Texans are backing into the playoffs. After starting the year 10-3 the Texan drop three and its seems due to injury, lack of experience, and new wrinkles becoming old wrinkles, hence easily exposed by opposing teams. With Matt Schaub going down for the season for the third season in five for the Texans, the team turn to Matt Leinhart, who immediately went down with a season ender of his own to settle on T.J. Yates, the first year quarterback out of North Carolina and the ACC. Yates saw success in his first four games with four wins in a row, with a limited offense, Andre Johnson was in and out and Arian Foster was limited) and did well to keep the Texans in line to capture their first division championship and and playoff appearance. But after three losses and serious injuries to the prior players noticed as well as defensive end Mario Williams, the 2006 overall pick and perennial sack threat. The fact they were able to survive these injuries and continue to win is a testament to their coaches and toughness.

The Cincinnati Bengals, after much scrutiny centered around the retention of Coach Marvin Lewis, stance on Carson Palmer and trading of Chad Ochocinco, the Bengals entered the season with many questions and plenty to prove. But with the amazing rookie season put up by TCU product of Andy Dalton and big play ability of fellow rooie A.J. Green out of Georgia, the Bengals surprised the NFL to the tune of a 9-7 record and playoff birth. A defense that semed to grow up this year position by position, due to the removal of players detremental to locker room environment and team mentality, rankd 7th in the league and fought division foes and perennial playoff contenders Pittsburgh Steelers and Baltimore Ravens to tough losses and proved they belonged.

A matchup in week 14 saw the two rookie QB's square off in what amounted to a playoff preview of the this weeks coming matchup, this time set in Houston rather than the Queen City of Cincy.  The Houston Texans are the only team in the playoffs that can claima top ten spot in Defense, Offense and Margin of Victory, a major indicator of playoff success. However, it may seem difficult to get a read on the Texans true abilities and how they will do in their first ever playoff game. A respectable 320 yards per game with Yates under center gives hope to a team that lost key players on offense, but it was against 3 teams in the top 15 in defense yards per game and 3 against teams outside of it, showing if nothing else consistency. But an 18 pont per game average 15 field goals to 9 touchdowns shows that their ability to punch it in for a touchdown needs to improve if they are to have a shot against a Bengals defense that is adept at getting to the quarterback (5th in sacks) and at holding the run (10th). However, the same defense is 25th in redzone defense. Adding the return of a healthy Arian Foster and Andre Johnson could spell success for the Texans 25th ranked Redzone offense. As long as the solid performance of the Houston Texans line holds up they can put up enough points to win in what looks to be a tough and close battle.

Andy Dalton and A.J. Green have stolen the spot light from the the rest of the offense, and the likes of Cedric Benson (1,000 yard rusher and top pass blocker) as well Jerome "Front Flippin" Simpson are great complements to the rookies on offense, as well a second Oklahoma Tight End Jerome Gresham. Dalton has the targets and the time necessary (4rd lowest sack total by offensive line at 25 allowed) to reach his targets and convert scoring drives, but his accuracy and ability hit big plays on a sack fast 3-4 defense will be key for the Texans offense to score. Dalton has shown his rookeie streak by showing an inability at times to focus early on in games and has been taken out early of a few games because of it. His focus and leadership need to be unwavering for the Texans to have a chance against a defense ranked 9th in Redzone D and has 45 sacks on the season.

All in all, this game will be simialr to the week 14 matchup, with this game coming down to last minute dramatics. Look for Arian Foster to have a solid game on the ground and through the air against marginal Bengal Linebackers and for J.J. Watt to make big plays on defense for the Texans. A.J. Green will get his share of highlights as well as the Bengal O but the Texans will pull out their first game at home with the classic playoff formula of running, defense and ball control.

Final Score: Houston Texans 27 Cincinnati Bengals 23