NFL Mid Season Report and Predictions: AFC North

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NFL Mid Season Report and Predictions:
 AFC North

Baltimore Ravens (5-2, 1st Place)

What They Have Gained: The Ravens have done what most good teams need to to win and are winning the games that they SHOULD win. They took the pride of Cleveland, New England, Dallas, Cincy and KC and are in a good position going into the stretch run of the season. The offensive line, one of the main concerns coming into the season, has with stood patches here and there and given Flacco and Co. room to operate against the league. The receiving core is a bright spot for the team and they have taken their never say die approach to another level, winning 3 games by 3 or less and 4 by 7 or less. The bend don't break approach has worked thus far.

What They Have Lost: But.......that is beginning to catch up to the team. If you bend anything far enough it will break. And the Ravens are beginning to show signs of just that. They have lost there identity on defense, on pace to finish outside the top 20 on defense for the second year in a row and only 3rd time since 1999. And for all the talk about rival Pittsburgh's defense's age slowing it down age and injury is actually affecting B'more. Age has begun to catch Ed Reed, a major game changer on defense and injury has cost the Ravens Ray Lewis, there leading tackler and heart of the defense, as well as number one CB Ladarius Webb and cost Terrell Suggs half the season.

The defenses regression is also affecting the offense, who are on the brink of losing its identity, involving top runner Ray Rice less in favor of Flacco's arm due to opposing offenses lighting up the once great defense.

Where They Stand: As it stands Baltimore has clawed its way to first place in the AFC North but are at risk of sinking fast if the holes on D don't get filled and if Ray Rice's legs aren't used to keep opposing offenses on the sidelines. They cannot afford to rest the season hands on Joe Flacco's strong but irratic arm.

What's Ahead: Baltimore is 1-2 on the road and face 5 road games as their team loses key pieces. 5 of the remaining games are against top 15 offenses and the Ravens still face 4 divisional tilts, two against rival Pittsburgh.

Prediction:  8-8

The Ravens struggle but defeat Cleveland and Oakland only to follow with a 1-6 stretch against, Pittsburgh, San Diego, Denver and the Giants to come up short against the Bengals to end the year, losing each game by less than 5 points and missing the playoffs for the first time since 2007.

Pittsburgh Steelers (4-3, 2nd Place)

What They Have Gained: The Steelers have shown detractors that no matter the age of the defense or who plays were the bottom line is the Steelers Defense is good. Really good. Really good without Troy Polamalu for 6 games, James Harrison for 3 games and Lamar Woodley in and out of the lineup. They don’t sack. They don’t get turnovers. But they don’t let you score either. In 4 wins they haven’t given up more than 17 points, averaging 13.3 points given up a win.  Big Ben has taken well to the new playbook under Todd Haley averaging more than 290 yards a game and a 14/3 Touchdown to Interception ratio. Jonathan Dwyer, in the last two games has brought balance to the offense and seems to be a good find yet again for a great drafting team.

What They Have Lost: injuries have blistered Steelers young and old. First Round pick David DeCastro and Sean Spence, their third rounder, both projected starters were lost for the season. Rashard Mendenall has only played in two games. And that age question about the D? It might be a little valid. With father time making bones brittle for the aging D, Troy and Harrison missing games and a slowed bevy of vets in Brett Keisel, Larry Foote, Ryan Clark, Casey Hampton and Ike Taylor, all over 30, made the detractors look right in allowing comeback wins for Tennessee, Oakland and Denver.  In those three losses Pittsburgh held opponents to 37 points in the first half but surrendered 54 in the second half.
And the offense needs to continue to get strong play from the running, unlike the first 3 games and the game against Tennessee. When Pittsburgh rushes for less than 100 yards they’ve lost all 3 games. When they go over the 100 bill mark, they win. It’s that simple.

Where they Stand: The Pittsburgh Steelers have lost to the Denver Broncos, Oakland Raiders, and Tennessee Titans. They had a joke of a running game through 6 weeks that came to a head in the aforementioned loss to the woeful Titans. And those are all reasons why the Steelers are what they are now. With a healthier D and run game they could be looking at least a 6-1 record and the best record in the AFC. But the loses they did encounter allowed them to find people to plug holes along the line, on the defense and in the running game. As strange as it sounds the Steelers are better for losing.

What’s Ahead: The Giants lead off the second half for Pittsburgh and Baltimore gets two shots at the Steelers. Yet those are the only winning teams on slate for Pittsburgh the rest of the way.

Prediction: 11-5

Look for Pittsburgh to have a blistering second half as the defense gets healthier as well as the rest of the team. New York wins a nail biter and Baltimore splits the season series which seems to be the norm for these two squads, but Pittsburgh wins its other 5 contests to win the AFC North.

Cinncinati Bengals (3-4, 3rd Place)

What They Have Gained: The Cinncinati Bengals offense must have liked the way they played last year because they are giving the NFL more of the same. The Red Rocket Andy Dalton and standout receiver A.J. Green are continuing to give the NFL fits. Andy Dalton needs only one more TD to tie his total from last year (14). A.J. Green continues to be his numebr one target with nearly 50 catches and already the same amount of touchdowns (7) he had all of last year. And Cedric Benson's replacement, Benjarvis Green-Ellis is doing his best Benson impression, on pace for nearly identical stats as Benson had for the Bengals last year. This has given the Bengals a top 15 offense and plenty of punch to fight with.

What They Have Lost: A defense. What was once a top 10 defense is now ranked 25th giving up a whopping 26 points a game, including 34 to woeful Cleveland last week. Though they lead the league in sacks the Bengals aer losing the turnover battle, ranking 27th in the Takeaway/Giveaway Differential. Where they ranked 9th in taking care of the ball on offense last year they are 18th this year and the defense still is not getting turnovers as they did before Jonathan Joseph left two years ago. Add that the Bengals are 29th in the league in redzone defense and you have a recipe for trouble.

Where They Stand: The Bengals need to come out of the bye week and prove three things to the NFL if they want to retur to the postseason again this year. They must prove that they can protect the football on offense. This starts with Andy Dalton being more confident in his throws and mechanics and receivers being on the same page with the enigmatic QB. They must prove that they can play in big games. A stinker against Baltimore in the opener, and a a game against Pittsburgh in which the Steelers tried to give them the game to go with a head scratcher against Cleveland stand out in my mind of games the Bengals just weren't ready for mentally. They must step up on defense and create havoc in the secondary and the redzone. If they continue to allow opposing teams to throw without fear and score without obstacle, their 9-7 record from last year will be a distant memory.

What's Ahead: The Bengals face a sandwich of a task in the upcoming schedule with tough home games versus the Manning Brothers in back to back weeks, a soft middle against KC, Oakland, and San Diego, two close ones versus Dallas and Philly then end with a slate of tough matchups versus division rivals Baltimore and Pittsburgh.

Prediction: 8-8

After a pair of tough losses versus the Mannings, the Bengals find the turnover button versus turnover prone

Matt Cassel, Carson Palmer and Philip Rivers, take a revenge game against the Ravens only to get knocked out of the playoffs in the last game of the season against eventual division Champion Pittsburgh.

Cleveland Browns (2-5, Last Place)

What They Have Gained: The Cleveland Browns have begun to dig a core that any team that expects to win must have. Trent Richardson looks every bit worthy of the Top 5 selection the Browns made him in the 2012 NFL Draft. He plays hard, he plays tough, and leads by example, playing through injury and to through the whistle. Brandon Weeden seems competent and able to make all the throws, no matter how limited the targets. Josh Gordon is sneaking into the public eye with his pension for big plays and burning corners. And the offensive line led by Joe Thomas can become a great one in time. The defense can make plays tied for 3rd in INTs (20) and 12th in sacks (19).

What they Have Lost: The one thing you don’t want to lose in the NFL. Games. And with the exception of their blowout loss to the defending Champs (A game they were ahead in by two scores at one point), and an 8 point loss to Buffalo, each game has been within a score to tie or win. They have lost consistency on offense, (scoring more than Twenty 3 times and less than 4 times) and on defense (giving up more than Twenty 4 times and less than 3 times).  Most notably, they have lost their high profile GM and President in Mike Holgrem and lost control of the franchise to a self-proclaimed Steelers fan.

Where They Stand: The more things change the more they stay the same. Through 8 games in each of the last 5 seasons Cleveland is 2-6, 3-5, 3-5, 1-7 and 3-5. They play competitive football but the results are the same.

What’s Ahead: With both wins this year coming at home and all road games ending in losses, four more road trips to Dallas, Oakland , Pittsburgh and Denver don’t looking promising. Nor do visits from Pittsburgh and the RGIII led Redskins. Equally as overmatched Kansas City rounds out their schedule.

Prediction: 4-12

Their propensity for paymaking can only help against KC and Oak, but the Browns won’t make nearly enough plays to win anything else on tap for the rest of the season. The Browns and fans should start counting down to the 2013 Draft and Geno Smith.

Tim Tebow and Tom Brady: Hated by Association

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Tim Tebow and Tom Brady. Similar and Different. Both Quarterbacks. Both division champs. Both media gods,  underrated playmakers, at least at the two year mark in each ones respective careers.

One's the Golden Boy, one the Golden Child. They both attended big time schools, with big time histories and with multiple big time rivals (Brady's Michigan is bitterly hated by Ohio St. and in state rival Mich. St. while Florida's got Tennessee, Florida St. and University of Miami). Each had that college moment that was idolized by the schools that call them idols (Tebow crying on the sideline and the speech, Brady the 98' season of second comebacks and the 98' Orange Bowl).
They even share the unwavering, eye on the prize opponent torturing focus and cool in the face of their biggest challenges.
But it is the unbridled, unrelenting dislike of these two individuals for being themselves. You might stop reading there and say, "what channel are you watching!?!?", but,  the truth is, Tom Brady and Tim Tebow are winners, and they win by never changing who they are to get ahead. They do it the way they have always done it and how winners have done it. They believed in themselves, blocked out what they heard about themselves that was negative and just plain worked harder than you. And they are left to take the public bullet when the media gushed so much over them that those who aren't fans developed such a discourse for the constant feeding of stories, specials, coverage and analysis that the dislike for constant coverage is pointed towards those that are, in this case Tebow and Brady.

I am not a Brady or Tebow fanatic, Pats or Broncos fan or Florida Gator or Michigan Wolverine. Far from it.  I bleed black and gold ( Steelers)and green and orange (The U). Both qb's. and the teams they are associated with have broken my heart too many times on the field of play to count. But I'm a realist. They are and should be the good guys. Tebow is devout in his faith and lives in it the way your supposed. (I should know: I went to catholic schools from preschool to college). Brady says the right thing, lives within the law and gets attention for how he helps his team and his sport rather than hurt it. No animal cruelty, drunken irresponsibility or member's chairs in strip clubs.

But instead of taking what we see and read and leaving well enough alone, we fall victim to the rumors, to the maybes, the what ifs, the things they haven't done or what the detracting media coverage has to say.

Tim Tebow has two halves in the media and the public eye.

The first is an everybody man. He is the guy that overachieves, gets the good job and has all the friends in the world. But he had to earn every bit of it and that, along with what it allowed him to accomplish, that created the following and eventual media love he now is now encompassed in. You could say that Urban Meyer's man crush on him was the only reason Tebow even got a chance at quarterback and didn't become a tailback too slow to make a difference as. Or you can look at his quiet fire and incomparable motor, never wavering, quitting on himself or his teammates and allows keeping an even keel. Some might see tv spots like the pre draft special and the Mic'd up special that Tebow agreed to the added publicity and thusly is a glutton for the attention. Or you can look at what they reveal, a work ethic that saw him working 12 hours a day to become a legit first round qb that would fold who he was to get more coin. Watch the Mic'd up, a contractual obligation rather one players sign up for, that further proves his religious qualities, ability to let his obligation to others keep his glass half full and ice cube cool while letting that same quiet and spiritual confidence stir them and keep them ready and stable.

His public image is one that children should see more often, rather than the Lawrence Phillips, the Jemarcus Russell's and the Pac Man Jones'. Heck, even the Ochocincos. That we vilify him for it is a proof that our entertainment barometers need some adjusting.

Tom Brady is similar in his cool demeanor that is infectious and calming for a Patriots team that has own the AFC East every season that he's commanded. Similar in his "awe shucks" appeal in the media  and that he has had to work to get were he is. He fought off Drew Henson, a mega amateur talent, and Brian Griese, son of a Legend and future quarterback for Tebow's Broncos. He had to earn the Michigan Wolverine communities respect after they booed him relentlessly and screamed for his benching and a coach who nearly let him transfer from Michigan in Lloyd Carr. His infamous seventh round selection put him behind Drew Bledsoe but he beat him out too. He can barely throw 50 yards, runs worse than a 4.9 40 and will never win a strongman competition. But his competitiveness makes him Jordan-esque. Not as talented as you but infinitely more resourceful and harder working then you. And we hate him for it. That and his Jeter-esque tabloid attention. But also like Jeter, he never was a cheater, domestic violator or club hopper like most athletes with millions of money and as many women chasing him. He put winning and team above all and deflects accolades to his team and family, just like Jeter. Top it off his marriage and baby on the way with Gisele Bundchen.

 His public image could have easily became Ryan Leafs, Ben Roethlisberger's or Mike Vick, but by keeping his nose to the ground and eye's on the prize he stays the straight and narrow.

Big Ben has two accusations of rape,
and countless horror stories from fans in Pittsburgh. Pacman Jones lives in strip clubs and has more mug shots thn mugs. Mike Vick did some really bad things and Lawrence Phillips is in jail for 31 years for domestic battery, drugs and using his vehicle as a weapon by running it into three teens.

Tim Tebow  and Tom Brady are hated
hated by Hurricanes, Seminoles, Spartans, Buckeyes,  Jets, Dolphins, Chargers and now Steelers.  But it should be for the reason they should rather than the reason why have been hated. Because they are who they are and do what they do, win. No matter how much we hate it.
But if you had two baby boys and you wanted them to emulate someone, would it be Brady and Tebow or Lawrence Phillips and Brett Favre?

Super Bowl Coaches Predict Superbowl Contenders

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Recently, two of the last decades best superbowl coaches were asked who they thought would be this year's super bowl matchup. Here's what they had to say.

Who do you like in the Super Bowl?

Cowher: I will take New Orleans and Pittsburgh. I think Pittsburgh is a team that can go on the road, they are built to do that with their great defense, and do that all three games. Pittsburgh has great matchups with New England (13-3) or Baltimore (12-4). New Orleans is the one team that can go back up and beat Green Bay. I’m picking the hot hand there.

Dungy: Well, I started out early on with Pittsburgh and Green Bay and I’m going to stick with that. If Ben is healthy, that has a good chance to play out. The team that is scary to me is the Giants. I think they can make some noise.

It is one thing to read Cowher's statement and assume hometown and personal bias. But to see Dungy take the same approach speaks volumes to what the Steelers are built to do and that is play defense, the winning solution to every Super Bowl team outside of the 2006 Colts. New Orleans is defenitely the hot hand and possesses the most statistically accomplish QB of the year in Drew Brees and are the only team that can match Green Bay point for point. Green Bay however, is a special team that, week 15 notwithstanding, know how to win the close games. This will be easily one of the best playoffs to date.

Bill Cowher, Meet the Dolphins

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James Walker, blogger for the AFC North division on ESPN. 

"The Dolphins didn't handle the Sparano situation well and that will not look good among the coaching community. Miami also plans to retain general manager Jeff Ireland, doesn't have a franchise quarterback and has to compete with winning programs like the New England Patriots and New York Jets in the AFC East. Top coaching candidates may see other jobs around the league as more attractive"

Jerome Bettis, former all-pro, Cowher RB and current commentator for the NFL Network

"It would have to be farfetched -- and this would never happen -- it would have to (be) something like Andy Reid gets fired or something crazy," Bettis said. "Something to that degree." ... That's the type of scenario that Coach Cowher would have to really give some thought, because now you're not coming in coaching a last-place team. You've got a quality football team that needs direction and understanding." 

"I don't think a Miami job will entice him because there are so many issues, No. 1 being the quarterback position," Bettis said. "The one thing I do know is he's not going anywhere that doesn't have a solid quarterback already in place."

If we are to listen to the ideas of others we might forget to see the reality of some situations. Both James Walker and Jerome Bettis have great knowledge of these situations and respected opinions. But one thing about the NFL is the unexpected is always right around the corner. And if you take a look at what it takes to make Cowher happy and what the Dolphins have to offer, you might be surprised with what you find. 

1) An established team

First things first, Bill Cowher wants to walk into a good situation. He's not going to want a Jaguars team that has a rookie quarterback he probably would not have wanted or a defense that is light years away from Super Bowl or mid-90's Steelers quality. Kansas City has an opening, stars on both side of the ball, great fight, great fans and great upside. Downside? Meet GM Scott Pioli. He's going NOwhere. That leaves potential openings in Minnesota and San Diego. But Minnesota has Adrian Peterson and nothing else and Norv Turner just seems to be that cat with 9 lives, so we can rule them out. 

The Dolphins? More established than you think.

Defense

They have a great defense. Yes, THAT Miami Dolphins defense. YES, the 2011 version. They are sneaky third in the league in Rush Defense. As for their 25th ranked Pass D? You can attribute that to three gashings courtesy of Tom Brady, Eli manning and Philip Rivers. Remove those outliers and the Defense jumps to a respectable 11th overall. And on top of that, since the offense has learned to control the clock with Reggie Bush and smart passing, (2nd in the league in Time of Possession for the past 6 weeks with a 4-2 record) the defense is able to use its assets and play fast and quality defense, similar to what the Steelers used to and still value. 

Davis is starting to join the conversation of  top 3 corners in the league.

Davis is starting to join the conversation
of  top 3 corners in the league.

Now imagine how quickly this defense would turn around in a 3-4 Zone Blitz scheme that Cowher would undoubtedly deploy? 3-4's need linebackers with speed for the edge and cover skills for the middle (Taylor, Wake, Dansby and Burnett are perfect fits) Ends and tackles that take up blockers, (Merling is a start and DT is abundant in the coming draft, a Cowher specialty) and Man to Man corners that can hold their own (Vontae Davis is a star and Sean Smith is a solid starter). Cowher would only have to add his scheme to let this Defense reach its potential. The sacks would add up quick and the corners would do excellent jobs of capitalizing on quarterback mistakes because of the rush. A match made in heaven in my opinion. 

Offense 

The offensive line is strength. Jake Long is a true star and lead while Vernon Carey, Young Mike Pouncey and Incognito play with a mean streak similar to what Cowher loves for his teams to push the defense back with the running game. Anthony Fasano, for all his receiving ups and downs, is a great run blocker, the real reason he is still in Orange and Teal. He is cut from the same mold of Mark Bruener, a favorite from Cowher's Pittsburgh days.

Marshall could finally reach his potential with a leader and disciplinarian like Cowher.

Marshall could finally reach his
potential with a leader and
disciplinarian like Cowher. 

At running back there may be a snag. We know that Cowher loves a bruiser and the Dolphins just don't have one. Reggie has developed a great attitude over the past few weeks and is really trying to run guys over when on the field, contributing to his recent 100 yard efforts, and Daniel Thomas is a great, strong and young complement to Reggie. But Cowher may want someone that can tote it 30 times a game that he can trust at the goal line. 

The receivers do well in their ability to catch the ball and create, when the ball gets to them in timely fashion. Brandon Marshall is a tar. Along with Devon Bess, they play with chips on their shoulder and are both threats in the receiving games. A true compliment to them is that they have finally put into their games the ability to block down field and seek that block to spring the runner. If you watch the film, Bush gets big yardage when he can hit the hole and have help at the second level, where the TE and WR's have been flourishing in their down field blocking. 

That brings us to another sticking point in bring Cowher to South Florida

2) Quarterback.

Cowher won only when he drafted his QB 
in 2004. In Ben first season Pittsburgh
was 15-1.

This is one piece of the team that many would feel as the though the most experience would be warranted from Cowher to bring him into the fold. The Dolphins have a competent passer in Matt Moore, but he, like Tommy Maddox, is not a franchise style or Super Bowl type QB. But what the Dolphins do have over any other team is the ability to add a star quarterback through the draft immediately, with the perks of:

a) Not ruffling feathers of the current incumbent and causing locker room/Front Office friction (Jaand Gabbert, Minnesota and Ponder, KC Cassel and Pioli)

b) A draft class for Qb's that rivals 2004, during which Cowher hand pick his man in Ben Roethlisberger

c) Setting the tone of his tenure with the franchise with his kind of Quarterback

Cowher gets to pick from, Robert Griffin III (Heisman and pro style in college), Mark Bradley (Great leader, measurables and pedigree coming from USC) Landry Jones (Great competitor and numbers) and to a lesser extent, if they can jump high enough, prized QB Andrew Luck (Highest rated QB prospect ever).

It’s not as if the QB position would be a drawback. Cowher could choose his guy; build around him while finally being the guy to bring the first Franchise QB to Miami since Marino retired.

And don't be surprised if said QB gets hands on training with Marino, good friend and co-worker of Cowher, from Pittsburgh, living in Miami. 

However, moves like that might require

 3) GM Power  

Is Ireland worth missing out on Cowher?

Is Ireland worth missing out on Cowher?

And that may be the sticking point. This is where it gets scary for Miami fans. Do the Dol-fans want a new GM. Hell yes. One that doesn’t draft like a Sputnik? Missed on Ginn Jr. Missed chances at three prime needs in 2010 draft (passed on RB Mark Ingram in 1st round, DT Marvin Austin in 2nd round, and QB Ryan Mallet in the 3rd). Offended Dez Bryant to the point of undraftable in 2010.  He's done a good job somewhat on the defense but Cowher's track record (and yes I realize that Cowher was never a GM in Pittsburgh, but his power over decisions in player personnel decisions was strongly apparent.) is amazing in the draft an beyond it. His ability to find players that fit and play the right way is uncanny. Hines Ward, Jason Gildon, Joel Steed, Mike Vrabel, Max Starks, and Joey Porter where all deep draft picks that he found and made stars. Wondering what he could add to the Dolphins squad is as easy as looking at his teams that ruled the AFC Central and North for years is all one needs to do.

However, Steve Ross may be able to afford Cowher but must find away to let Cowher run things unopposed. Cowher's distaste for Front Office opposition is one well chronicled in the Pittsburgh area and is the main reason he has waited so long to return.

 This will probably end the same as it has the past few years. Some flirting, some courting, some questions, but no connections. But there will be no doubting Ross doesn't want to repeat what happened last year in missing his man in Jim Harbaugh. Cowher is the number one target for Ross. He's wants him and he'll ante up. But ultimately, it is up to Team Cowher to see the potential that the Dolphins have to pull 2011 49ers on the league. A match made in heaven? Maybe not. But the best option for Cowher? The only way a better situation comes along is if Mike McCarthy suddenly retires. This is it for Cowher, time to dust off the chin and get started.